Newly discovered Kissinger Memo on Iraq

Fecesthrowingmonkey's diplomatic sources intercepted a recent communique from none other than Herny Kissinger. The original PDF is too hard to read, so I had our out-sourced off-shore monkeys in Nehru type it up:

Dear George W. Bush,

This memo is to lay out possible scenarios for Iraq, including steps which can be taken as this war progresses.

Also, I would like to initially add a caveat which you may realize upon reading the analysis: The victory scenario which you define as a Stable Democratic Western-Leaning Iraqi state, ‘so our troops can stand down’, is completely impossible. You may have a Democratic Iraqi state, and Western-Leaning Iraqi state, a Stable Iraqi State—but the existence of one of these states necessarily negates the existence of the two possibilities: i.e.—you may have a stable Iraq, but one that is not democratic nor western-leaning.

1) The Maximalist Solution

This is advocated by a few right wing members of your party, and talk radio: The nuclear bombing of Iraq, repopulate the country with Texans, Arizonans and Right Wing Californians, place all surviving indigenous people into reservations and/or expel them. This obviously could lead to backlash against our interests in other parts of the globe. Also, the level of carnage may upset our coalition especially if some Iraqis who survive the nuclear holocaust convert to Christianity. The sympathy gained by these Iraqis with the American domestic public may not give us the time or the maneuverability to finish the ethnic cleansing. (Not to mention dealing with all the Hitler comparisons!) Overall, highly unadvisable. Listed here only to create a certain benchmark of what can be accomplished in Iraq.

2) The Minimalist Solution

This is advocated by your domestic political adversaries, whom you humorously called the “cut and run panty brigades” when I dropped by your father’s Memorial Day BBQ at Kennebunkport last summer. This position states that we should withdraw all our troops, (some proponents of this theory add that we should throw in some reparations) and turn over all authority to the elected Iraqi government.

This scenario would leave the Iraqi state in Iran’s and Syria’s orbit. Leaving Iraq would be disastrous to our interests in the area—as there is no way to admit defeat which is harmless to our nation’s credibility. We will prove al-Queada’s central premise correct: we are indeed a paper tiger. Further, Iraq may complicate situation more by pursing vengeance (through terrorism) or attempts at punitive reparations.

3) The Kissinger Associates solution:

This scenario envisions our military withdrawal to one section of the country, followed by material support for a faction in the ensuing civil war. Hopefully, we will pick the winning faction, thereby insuring continued influence in Iraq affairs. The only question is which faction to support.

Support the Kurds:

The Kurds have been our military allies for the past 16 years—since we offered protection from SH in 1991. They occupy the most stable and ethnically coherent region of Iraq. The problem with supporting them significantly is that they are not primarily interested in being a part of Iraq. Their leadership is a mixture of Nationalist and Leftist former rebel commanders. If they manage to secede from Iraq, we may be faced with situation akin to pre-1967 Israel—defending an isolated garrison state which has historical claims upon its neighbors’ territories (Kirkuk, parts of Iran & Turkey). It will not benefit the region to have both an Israeli-Arab and a Kurd-Arab conflict going on where we are the primary diplomatic and military supporters of the non-Arab party.

Support the Shia Arabs:

If you believe in majority rule, the Shia of Iraq is the group to support. They make up over 50% of the population, distributed over a large portion of territory, and their demographic base is near Iraq’s largest oil field and port. They also did not oppose the invasion of the country in 2003, and have been politically responsive to the democratization program.

The problem with the Shia, is as Iraq’s oppressed majority of the last 50 years, they do not have enough educated people to staff the bureaucracy of the state. Many are illiterate, superstitious and very susceptible to political demagoguery. At this point, they will need a generation before enough talented Shias emerge to successfully manage the state. This would involve a 20 year investment in their education and infrastructure. In addition we may have to peel most of their present leadership from Iranian influence.

Support the Sunni Arabs:

At first glance, this position is counterintuitive—the Sunnis were the backbone of the Ba’ath party and are currently leading the insurgency against us. On the other hand, they are dominant in the center of the country—one has to consider this if you intend to keep Iraq whole. The Sunnis are settled around the major water sources (Tigris and Euphrates) and as the former ruling classes, have enough wealth, military and bureaucratic experience to manage the country. Although they are a minority in Iraq, they are a regional majority—a very important fact to consider when you consider regional support for our plans in Iraq.

This memo is strictly confidential and I will deny its existence if questioned.

Yours truly,

Henry Kissinger